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Algorithmic Stablecoins

Algorithmic stablecoins maintain their peg through code, not collateral. When the price dips below $1, arbitrageurs burn the stablecoin to mint a governance token, contracting supply. When it rises above $1, they mint stablecoins by burning governance tokens. This two-token system works - until confidence collapses and both tokens spiral to zero. Terra/UST's $40B collapse in May 2022 remains DeFi's largest failure.

Mint/Burn Arbitrage Loop

The core mechanism: always $1 worth of GOV token can be swapped for 1 STABLE (and vice versa), regardless of market price. Arbitrageurs profit from the difference.

Price < $1.00
Buy 1 STABLE for $0.95 -> burn it -> receive $1 of GOV -> sell GOV -> pocket $0.05
?
Price > $1.00
Burn $1 of GOV -> mint 1 STABLE -> sell for $1.05 -> pocket $0.05
?
Price = $1.00
No arbitrage profit -> supply stable -> peg maintained

Death Spiral Simulator

When confidence drops, the mint/burn loop becomes a death spiral: STABLE depegs -> holders burn for GOV -> GOV supply inflates -> GOV price dumps -> less backing -> deeper depeg -> repeat until zero.

Final Peg Price
$0.98
GOV Price Change
-15%
Spiral Rounds
0
Outcome
Stable

? Why Death Spirals Are Inevitable

REFLEXIVITY
The backing asset (GOV) depends on demand for the thing it's backing (STABLE). If STABLE demand drops, GOV drops, reducing backing.
HYPERINFLATION
Burning STABLE mints GOV. Under stress, GOV supply can 1000x in hours - same dynamic as printing money to pay debts.
NO FLOOR
Fiat-backed stables have real assets. Algo stables have only confidence. Once trust breaks, there's nothing to stop the fall to zero.

Terra/Luna Timeline

May 7, 2022
$2B UST withdrawn from Anchor protocol. Large UST sells on Curve push price to $0.985. LUNA Foundation Guard deploys BTC reserves.
May 9-10
UST falls to $0.69. LUNA minting accelerates - supply goes from 350M to 1.5B in 24 hours. LUNA drops from $64 to $30.
May 11-13
Full death spiral. LUNA supply hits 6.5 trillion. LUNA price: $0.00001. UST: $0.10. Chain halted. $40B in value destroyed.